Development and multicenter validation of a CT-based radiomics signature for predicting severe COVID-19 pneumonia.

OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a radiomics nomogram for timely predicting severe COVID-19 pneumonia. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Three hundred and sixteen COVID-19 patients (246 non-severe and 70 severe) were retrospectively collected from two institutions and allocated to training, validation, and testing cohorts. Radiomics features were extracted from chest CT images. Radiomics signature was constructed based on reproducible features using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression algorithm with 5-fold cross-validation. Logistic regression modeling was employed to build different models based on quantitative CT features, radiomics signature, clinical factors, and/or the former combined features. Nomogram performance for severe COVID-19 prediction was assessed with respect to calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: Sixteen selected features were used to build the radiomics signature. The CT-based radiomics model showed good calibration and discrimination in the training cohort (AUC, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.843-0.942), the validation cohort (AUC, 0.878; 95% CI, 0.796-0.958), and the testing cohort (AUC, 0.842; 95% CI, 0.761-0.922). The CT-based radiomics model showed better discrimination capability (all p < 0.05) compared with the clinical factors joint quantitative CT model (AUC, 0.781; 95% CI, 0.708-0.843) in the training cohort, the validation cohort (AUC, 0.814; 95% CI, 0.703-0.897), and the testing cohort (AUC, 0.696; 95% CI, 0.581-0.796). Decision curve analysis demonstrated that in terms of clinical usefulness, the radiomics model outperformed the clinical factors model and quantitative CT model alone. CONCLUSIONS: The CT-based radiomics signature shows favorable predictive efficacy for severe COVID-19, which might assist clinicians in tailoring precise therapy. KEY POINTS: • Radiomics can be applied in CT images of COVID-19 and radiomics signature was an independent predictor of severe COVID-19. • CT-based radiomics model can predict severe COVID-19 with satisfactory accuracy compared with subjective CT findings and clinical factors. • Radiomics nomogram integrated with the radiomics signature, subjective CT findings, and clinical factors can achieve better severity prediction with improved diagnostic performance.

Radiomics analysis enables fatal outcome prediction for hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

BACKGROUND: In December 2019, a rare respiratory disease named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) broke out, leading to great concern around the world. PURPOSE: To develop and validate a radiomics nomogram for predicting the fatal outcome of COVID-19 pneumonia. MATERIAL AND METHODS: The present study consisted of a training dataset (n = 66) and a validation dataset (n = 30) with COVID-19 from January 2020 to March 2020. A radiomics signature was generated using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression model. A radiomics score (Rad-score) was developed from the training cohort. The radiomics model, clinical model, and integrated model were built to assess the association between radiomics signature/clinical characteristics and the mortality of COVID-19 cases. The radiomics signature combined with the Rad-score and the independent clinical factors and radiomics nomogram were constructed. RESULTS: Seven stable radiomics features associated with the mortality of COVID-19 were finally selected. A radiomics nomogram was based on a combined model consisting of the radiomics signature and the clinical risk factors indicating optimal predictive performance for the fatal outcome of patients with COVID-19 with a C-index of 0.912 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.867-0.957) in the training dataset and 0.907 (95% CI 0.849-0.966) in the validation dataset. The calibration curves indicated optimal consistency between the prediction and the observation in both training and validation cohorts. CONCLUSION: The CT-based radiomics nomogram indicated favorable predictive efficacy for the overall survival risk of patients with COVID-19, which could help clinicians intensively follow up high-risk patients and make timely diagnoses.